Stocks End Year On New Highs & Resembles 1990’s Performance

Happy New Year! I hope you all had a great holiday season and were able to enjoy some relaxation and time with family and friends.

In this month’s commentary I discuss how this past month and year went for the markets. I also give a long-term outlook of the markets and how the economy may act in 2014.

Is 2014 going to bring a true “correction”?
The US equity markets have gone over 19 months without any kind of major correction (10% or more). This is by far the longest stretch since the markets bottomed in 2009. So, when’s it going to finally come? Continue reading

Does The Market Have Room To Rise Or Is It Finally Going To Pullback?

Good morning and thank you for reading this week’s Monday Morning Market Commentary. I hope everyone enjoy Mother’s Day the weekend before last and I want to thank so many of you for the kind emails, wishing Beth Ann a Happy First Mother’s Day! We had a wonderful time and she was very thankful that I spent all weekend with her and Madison. Also, for all those that filled out the client survey, thank you. I really appreciate your feedback and will be making some changes to how we work because of it.

Now onto the markets for the last two weeks. Even with so much bad news coming out about our economy and the global economy, stocks have continued their swift ascent. These past two weeks looked very similar to many of the weeks we have seen this year, with stocks pushing high into the midweek, pulling back a little midweek, and then rising to close high on Friday. The S&P 500 rose over 3% over the last two weeks, closing at 1,667.47 on Friday.

Bond yields followed along with the S&P 500, rising to just over 1.9% throughout the week. Although bond yields have diverged severely from stocks the last few years, we have seen them start to move in unison again the last few months. The 10-yr Treasury went from 1.75% two Fridays ago, to close at 1.95% this past Friday, quite a big jump over 2 weeks. Continue reading

Stocks Give Back All Of Last Week’s Gains & Earnings Surprise To The Downside

Good morning and thank you for reading this week’s Monday Morning Market Commentary. This past week we had the markets overshadowed by all the sad and scary events from the Boston Marathon bombing. My thoughts and prayers have been going out to the friends and families of everyone affected by this horrific event.
As for the markets, we had stocks take back all the gains they had in the previous week and bond yields drop back to a major resistance of 1.7%. As for economic reports, we had a ton of disappointing reports, as well as some pretty lousy earnings reports. I’ll talk about the disappointing earnings reports and some technical signals we’ve received confirmation of this past week. Continue reading

All-Time New Highs For S&P 500… Will The Goods Time Continue?

Good morning and thank you for reading to this week’s Monday Morning Market Commentary. This past week we finally saw the S&P 500 close at all-time highs. It just so happen to come on the very last day of the week, month, and quarter, which was Friday. We did continue to see bond yields drop, even though stocks rose across the board, at least here in the U.S.
Let’s first look at the chart of the S&P 500 from last week. Stocks did start the week off quite rocky, with a big drop on Monday before it started it’s rise. The S&P 500 ended Friday at 1,569.19, an all-time high close for the index.
Bonds continued to diverge from stocks and we saw the 10-yr Treasury yield drop again. This divergence from stocks has been going on for a few weeks now and as I talked about early in 2012, when this happens it’s usually stocks that “catch down” to bond yields. The 10-yr Treasury ended the week all the way down to 1.852%. Continue reading

Is This The Never Ending Rally? Techinicals & Copper Prices May Be Warning Otherwise

Good morning and welcome to another Monday Morning Market Commentary. Thank you for taking the time to read/watch this week.  This week we saw stocks rally sharply throughout the whole week, leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average to reach it’s highest level ever and the S&P 500 to come within 1%, and bonds followed suit, with the 10-Yr Treasury yield back above 2%. We had a good employment report on Friday but some very worrisome reports out of China throughout the week.

This week I cover a little bit of everything: some economic data, some fundamental data, and a little technical analysis.

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